Doodaha ku saabsan mustaqbalka Yemen waxaa inta badan lagu soo koobaa xabbad-joojin, dawlado kumeel-gaar ah, ama qaabab awood-qaybsi oo dibadda laga soo hindisay. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxaa jira hal arrin oo mar walba la dhinac maro inkasta oo ay udub-dhexaad u tahay muddada uu dagaalku siday: waa maqaamka siyaasadeed ee aan weli la xallin ee Koonfurta Yemen. Taariikhda iyo Midowgii Fashilmay Koonfurta Yemen waxay ahayd dawlad madaxbannaan oo caalamku aqoonsan yahay ilaa sannadkii 1990-kii, waxaana loo yaqaannay Jamhuuriyadda Dimuqraadiga Shacbiga ee Yemen (PDRY). Waxay lahayd xuduudo go’an, hay’ado dawladeed, iyo xubinimo Qaramada Midoobay ah. Heshiiskii midowga ee lala galay Waqooyiga Yemen waxaa loo soo bandhigay inuu yahay iskaashi dhex maray laba dhinac oo siman oo si mutaddawacnimo ah isugu biiray. Laakiin xaqiiqadii, midowgaas si dhakhso ah ayuu u burburay, wuxuuna horseeday dagaalkii 1994-tii iyo in si nidaamsan loo gacan-bidheeyo dhinaca siyaasadda iyo dhaqaalaha ee da...
The agreement was signed by Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar and Somali Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Abdirizak Omar Mohamed in Istanbul. This move comes after Ethiopia signed an agreement in January granting it naval and commercial access to ports along Somaliland's coast in exchange for recognizing the breakaway region's independence.
In response, Ankara signed a comprehensive naval defense deal with Somalia last month, which Mogadishu says mandates Turkey to defend Somali sea waters against terrorism, piracy, and any external threat that could violate Somali state rights for the next ten years. The deal also reportedly empowers Turkey to develop Somalia's maritime resources in its EEZ.
The Turkish Navy has been operating off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden since 2009 as part of a UN mission to combat piracy and armed robbery. Turkey has extensive experience in offshore energy exploration, having discovered gas in the Black Sea in 2020.
US government reports estimate that Somalia may possess at least 30 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves, but it requires significant investment over the next three to five years. In 2022, the Somali government signed an exploration deal with US-based Coastline Exploration for seven offshore blocks, with drilling planned to commence in 2025.
Somaliland, the northern autonomous breakaway region, also signed an oil exploration deal with London-based Genel Energy in 2022. Drilling is set to start later this year in an area potentially containing 5 billion barrels of oil. Mogadishu considers this deal illegitimate and null and void.
According to a Turkish energy expert who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Turkey-Somalia deal will require substantial efforts from the Turkish side, including drilling and resource development. Turkey may deploy its petroleum drillship Abdulhamit to Somalia for this purpose.
The expert estimates that Turkey could spend up to half a billion dollars on exploration and drilling operations in Somali waters, with further development of gas or oil costing several billion dollars. It remains unclear whether Turkey will seek private or public partnerships to finance these projects.
The expert also notes that Western countries are increasingly focusing on green energy, making hydrocarbon exploration less attractive for funding. However, Turkey's naval presence and military assistance against terrorism in Somalia may encourage some companies to invest.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government has been actively involved in Somalia since 2011, establishing the world's largest Turkish embassy in Mogadishu and providing over $1 billion in humanitarian aid. Turkey now has a sizeable military base in Mogadishu, and Turkish firms operate the city's airport and port. Turkey has also trained over 16,000 Somali soldiers, equivalent to one-third of the military.
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