Advance but No Deal: Talks between Ethiopia and Somalia in Turkey

Significantly for East African diplomacy, the second round of Turkish-mediated negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia concluded in Ankara on August 13, 2024, without a definitive deal. Officials from both nations and Turkey claim that despite this, the conversations made clear development.

The focus of the debates is on a controversial port agreement Ethiopia signed in January 2024 with the self-declared sovereign nation of Somalandon. Relations between Ethiopia and Somaliland have been seriously strained by the deal wherein Ethiopia leases 20 kilometers of Somaliland's coastline in exchange for acceptance of Somaliland's independence. Viewing Somaliland as a part of its sovereign territory, Mogadishu denounced the agreement as unconstitutional, ejecting the Ethiopian ambassador and threatening to pull Ethiopian forces supporting Somalia out of the front lines against Islamist militants.

Unlike past diplomatic interactions, the Ankara negotiations were conducted indirectly via Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's mediation between the Somali and Ethiopian teams. Though there were no direct conversations between the two parties, Fidan underlined that the range of topics covered has expanded since the first round of talks in July and that "convergence on some major principles" marks "notable progress" despite this.

Looking ahead, Fidan said that a third round of negotiations set for September 17, 2024 aims to produce a "sustainable and viable" deal that may open the path for normalized relations between the two East African countries.

Emphasizing that Mogadishu's main focus is a solution that conforms with international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi Ahmed, the Foreign Minister of Somalia, expressed hope about the development made. "As we get ready for the third round of negotiations, we hope the momentum we have created will result in a last answer," Ahmed said.

Foreign Minister Taye Atske Selassie of Ethiopia also reflected similar attitude, highlighting Ethiopia's dedication to ongoing involvement, which he thinks would assist to heal present divisions and bring about the historically close relationship between the two countries back.

Given Turkey's close links to both Ethiopia and Somalia, it is not shocking that country plays a mediator. Turkey has been a major development partner for Somalia, giving security forces training and significant aid for development. These initiatives have given Turkey a strategic presence in the Horn of Africa, a territory vital for world trade paths.

Reportedly started with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's visit to Ankara in May 2024 and demand for Turkish mediation, the ongoing diplomatic effort was Given the apparently incompatible viewpoints of Somalia and Ethiopia, the first round of negotiations—which took place in July—met mistrust. Nonetheless, Turkey's diplomatic initiatives seem to have moved the two sides closer, therefore inspiring expectations for a peaceful outcome.

Not directly involved in the negotiations, Somaliland, which has run itself separately since declaring independence in 1991, has battled to obtain international acceptance. A Somaliland official did not reply right away to inquiries about the state of the negotiations.

The international community will be closely observing as the September discussions approach to see whether Somalia and Ethiopia can overcome their differences and come to an agreement honoring their legal systems and sovereignity. The result of these negotiations could have broad effects on Horn of Africa stability and peace.

Although the second round of negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia concluded without a clear agreement, the development in Ankara is encouraging indication that diplomacy, under Turkey's direction, may finally result in a settlement. Whether this momentum can be maintained and whether the two countries can establish common ground on the difficult problems under discussion will depend much on the forthcoming third round of negotiations.